I have recently learned some new latin. It's always great to learn new stuff, now all I have to do it look carefully for an opportunity to insert this into a sentence!
The phrase cum hoc ergo propter hoc means that correlation between two variables does not automatically imply that one causes the other.
see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation
I am an iconoclast and a follower of the "Church" of the Flying Spaghetti Monster.
see http://www.venganza.org/about/open-letter/
Here is an example of cum hoc ergo propter hoc, from the above web-page.
You may be interested to know that global warming, earthquakes, hurricanes, and other natural disasters are a direct effect of the shrinking numbers of Pirates since the 1800s. For your interest, I have included a graph of the approximate number of pirates versus the average global temperature over the last 200 years. As you can see, there is a statistically significant inverse relationship between pirates and global temperature.
I love this, it funny and clever. You'll know from other posts on my blog that I am interested in communication, influence and persuasion. The point here is that it doesn't have to be true to be believed only consistent. See the excellent book True Enough by Farhad Manjoo.
see http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/10/06/review-true-enough-by-farhad-manjoo/
I also like the (controversial) letter to the Kansas State Board because it also shows how parody can be persuasive.
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Nick Winston AdCITOL, MCMI • Tim , Love your blog post! remainds of a qoute I have seen in various forms.
ReplyDeleteFaith chains, doubt sets free, That's why it's scientific methodology for me!
Riaan, to help the manager I would introduce them to the concept of doubt = intelligence.
Riaan and Tim, if you haven't already, you may want to read 'Risk' by Dan Gardner. A lovely book that looks at how and why our brain makes causal links that may be logical, but are not rational or intelligent. It's a great intro into system 1 & system 2 psychology. It may help you come up with learning examples to help the manager.
In my courses I sometimes use 'derren brown' style experiments to show that what we believe is happening can be very different from what is actually happening. This seems to help managers with their comprehension of evaluation, measurement and reasoning, instead of observation and assumption.
Riaan another good book on this subject which may help you explain things to the manager is Edward de Bono's 'Masterthinkers handbook'. In the opening pages Debono describes something called the 'intelligence trap' which basically states that the better we are at something, the less likely we are to check our own results or assumptions. he doesn't use the latin, but makes an identical point with examples.